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SOCIO-POLITICAL RISKS
Only private operator to offer this service, Ascalon Strategies is pioneer and leader in the management of socio-political risks. Because all economic players are finding powerlessness in the exponential rise, all over the world, of various socio-political risks, we have decided to develop innovative risk management solutions to protect our customers against the risk of social unrest, civil violence, riots, looting, depredations, destructions, fires, terrorism...
It is in this vision that we have developed safety concepts based on forward-looking intelligence techniques and quick reaction procedures. These "tailor-made" operational concepts are aimed at all actors who have to face up to increasing socio-political risks in spite of themselves : companies, institutions and security forces. Because the socio-political risk is the major risk of the 2020 decade, we must, together, work for social peace, the only guarantee of prosperity.
Consequently, our action is part of increasing the level of general security of people and property. As such, our first priority is the safety of all : staff, customers, collaborators, visitors, third parties... At the same time, our constant concern is the preservation of infrastructures, buildings, vehicles, furnitures, materials, values. ... Because, in the face of new threats, traditional security is no longer enough, it is urgent to turn to new innovative strategies.
COMPANIES
All companies today are particularly exposed to socio-political risks. The economic costs of each major violent event are overwhelming for organizations. The total economic cost of the "Yellow Vests" movement is estimated at 4.4 billion euros. Another striking example, the only large retail group "Walmart" recorded total losses of more than 500 million dollars during the riots in Chile in 2019. It is therefore urgent to effectively protect our economy against riots, looting, destructions and losses in the current context of the massive increase in social unrest and civil violence.
INSTITUTIONS
Institutions are still the main target of social unrest. Consequently, they are the most exposed to socio-political risks. Places of power, administrations, elected officials and civil servants generally crystallizes social violence against them, as during the "Yellow Vests" movements in France, "Black Lives Matter" in the United States, or even the seizure of the Capitol by supporters of Donald Trump . More recently, the attempted insurrection in Brazil saw all the places of power invested by the rioters. All these examples must lead us to an adequate and responsible reaction aimed at protecting our institutions from social unrest and civil violence.
SECURITY FORCES
The security forces are always the last to be impacted by the socio-political risk, but they are the ones who generate the most serious consequences. Indeed, the absence of operational strategies, operative plans and therefore quick reactions, always leads, when the riots grow, to the looting of police stations, military bases and arsenals. These events have occurred many times, notably in Romania in 1989, in Albania in 1997, and more recently in the Middle East during the Arab Spring, in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Iraq... The irremediable consequences are the massive circulation of weapons in the country and the resulting rise in violence.
GEOSTRATEGIC RISKS
In the current context, the revival of international tensions raises fears of a resurgence of the risk of high-intensity conflict. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Europe, but also the tensions in the China Sea, particularly around Taiwan, added to a multitude of regional tensions in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, point to a potentially dramatic outcome.
The official and unofficial communications of the General Staffs of the main countries are unequivocal. Without exceptions, the American Strategic Command, the French EMA, the NATO EMI, but also the Russian and Chinese General Staffs of the strategic and operatives rank, communicate in the way of a major conflict to come in a close future.
Although the worst is never certain, it must always be anticipated, and reaction procedures must be planned in advance in order to be able to deal with a risk that is as uncertain as it is devastating if it materializes. The doctrine of Ascalon Strategies in this area can be summed up in a few words: “Always prepare for the worst to prevent it from happening”.
COMPANIES
Although only indirectly affected by geostrategic risks, companies in the private sector can nevertheless suffer major impacts that can in some cases jeopardize the very continuity of their existence. Indeed, the geostrategic factors induce a modification of the geopolitics of the economy. Consequently, wise leaders should, in the current context, engage the services of a strategic watch that perfectly controls the geostrategic risks correlated with the geopolitics of the economy. Without this anticipation, the slightest contextual modification can be fatal to a company.
INSTITUTIONS
Institutions are particularly threatened by geostrategic risks in situations of international tension. Indeed, espionage, clandestine actions, cyber-war are usual and permanent in this type of context. In extreme situations, they also have to deal with violent intrusions, as may be the case with certain embassies in unstable areas during political and social unrest. They must also be able to deal with the worst scenarios for the protection of personnel and information, as the example of the Russian invasion of Ukraine demonstrated.
SECURITY FORCES
Faced with geostrategic risks, the security forces, and in particular the armed forces, are the first to be involved, engaged and impacted. It is important that they can benefit from certain types of support and outsourced support in order to be able to concentrate their action on the essentials. In this case, it may be necessary to carry out technical assistance missions, civil-military actions, and more generally the organization of non-combat missions for their benefit. Experience shows that the outsourcing of non-operational missions frees up personnel and resources that can strengthen operational capacity.
TERRORIST RISKS
Terrorist risks, partially overshadowed in recent years by socio-political risks and geostrategic risks, are in reality underestimated to a large extent. Indeed, terrorist organizations are based on long-term strategies, whose long-term objectives are set in complete secrecy.
This risk is gradually returning to the forefront of the international scene. The latest intelligence reports on the subject point to the resurgence of the Islamic State (Daesh), as well as other subservient terrorist organizations. Everywhere else on the planet, clandestine cells are being reconstituted, ready for action.
In addition to religious terrorism, political terrorism is increasing exponentially, and could reach its climax in the years to come, this phenomenon being correlated with socio-political risks. In Europe as well as in North America, extreme right and extreme left terrorist cells are regularly dismantled.
COMPANIES
All companies today are particularly exposed to terrorist risks. All establishments open to the public are likely to be affected one day by a terrorist action, whether large or small. The examples are numerous, and the human toll often very heavy. Economically, the image deficit is still colossal. The activity of the Bataclan, for example, has never regained its profitability. To religious and political terrorism is sometimes added the risk of private terrorism, where the author acts only for his own account, motivated by personal feelings. These actions often lead to the assassination of company executives.
INSTITUTIONS
Institutions are systematically the preferred targets of terrorist groups. Indeed, they represent the symbol of political power, of the Nation and of the targeted State. They are also extremely vulnerable because they rarely have physical protection. Consequently, it is urgent to develop personnel protection solutions in order to minimize the level of risk incurred. The securing of infrastructures by permanent protection plans allows the immediate safety of personnel in the event of imminent threats, violent actions, or occurrences of risks.
SECURITY FORCES
Members of the security forces are on the front line when faced with the risk of terrorism. The police and military assassinated by terrorists are legion. Moreover, quick reaction procedures are often lacking in emergency situations. It is therefore of paramount importance to significantly increase the level of preparation of operational and administrative personnel. Simple procedures, but known and applied by all, often make the difference in a risky situation, and save human lives. There should never be any economies of means on the issue of the individual safety of security forces personnel.
